China in Latin America: current inertia of the Cold War

Abstract

In recent years, there have been numerous symptoms of the fragility of the international system which have culminated in the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It is increasingly common to hear and read about a “New Cold War”, a phrase referring to the current imitation of the international system of states from the second half of the 20th century. In some peripheral regions of the planet, the politics of ideological blocs never completely disappeared. However, the new structure of the international society has undergone a major change, since the state that can aspire to an alternative hegemony to the United States is no longer Russia as the successor of the Soviet Union but China as the (re)emerging great power. There are fundamental differences between China and the USSR, but also certain similarities in their challenges to the Western states in search of greater spaces of influence throughout the planet. In this context, the following article examines whether the Cold War political alliances are maintained during the first two decades of the 21st century in Latin America, an ever more influential region. It is not about carrying out any case study, a task that has gained growing interest and serves as support for the elaboration of the common thread of this work, which instead uses a more macro perspective. The main goal is to show some of the most relevant characteristics of the complex interregional relations between China and Latin America. For its part, the hypothesis is that, in the latter, international relations follow the dynamics of “ideological geopolitics” as stated by geographer John Agnew, but with the aforementioned role of China as the counterhegemonic alternative. Notwithstanding, the word inertia, included in the subtitle of the paper, is intended to designate alliances that have been maintained more because of the logic of the international system than to the political initiative of its actors.

To answer the question posed, the article is divided into three main parts. In the first section, following Agnew and others, a characterization of the geopolitical model typical of the Cold War and a review of the main concepts associated with these types of theories on international politics are conducted. Based on this theoretical framework, some of the most relevant aspects of the relations between China and Latin America are analysed in a section divided into four subparts. First, a brief history of China's presence in Latin America, as opposed to other powers, is elaborated to serve as an introduction to the topic. Next, a clear differentiation between the political and economic spheres is made; this may be a simplification because each one uses its own methodological tools, more qualitative in the first case and quantitative in the second, and also because they do not follow the same logic. The section on political relations examines issues related to the mutual recognition of states and governments and, more briefly, official visits and institutional collaboration on various matters. For its part, economic relations are limited for practical reasons to commercial exchanges through data available online. Next, the main features of the new post-ideological geopolitical era, which is extracted as a possible scenario from Agnew's work, are briefly described. The goal of this part is to provide a frame that serves as a reference to situate China’s relations with Latin America in the current balance of the international configuration of forces. Finally, some conclusions are stated about the interpretive capacity of these visions, both for Latin America and in what can be extrapolated to other territories on the planet.

Back into the theoretical framework, Agnew’s theory is matched with the possibility of a New Cold War, a periodization used by some authors. They have been arguing for years that the international reappearance of Russia and the growth of other alternative powers, especially China, may lead to a resurgence of ideological geopolitics. However, there is an open debate about whether this is the most likely scenario, as well as whether China is a real contender for hegemony. The analysis of the dispute for influence in Latin America can reveal some keys in that regard, as it has experienced major economic and political changes during the last two decades too. Among them, the emergence of a left-wing populism related to the deepening of extractivism in most countries is highlighted, as it is exactly what China needed the most for its industrialization.

The main political issues that this paper delves into are the relationship between Latin American states and Taiwan, and the international recognition of Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó as president of Venezuela, both represented in maps. On the other hand, the trade relationships are reflected in two graphics drawn from bilateral data between China and individual countries, and between the region and the Asian giant. These political and economic relations are also framed in the broader framework of Geopolitics defined above.

Regarding the results obtained, political relations fit much more closely with the division of Latin America into capitalist and post-communist blocs, while in economic relations there are hardly any distinctions based on the political orientation of the governments of each country. Therefore, the hypothesis of a trend towards ideological geopolitics and a New Cold War in the region is only partially fulfilled. This double dimension allows to draw conclusions about the strategies followed by both parties and, on a higher scale, about the balance between great powers.

The current international alliances in Latin America are related to the spaces that the United States and the European Union leave for others like China to penetrate, mainly the left-wing populism. This friendly approach between China and the Latin American left is actually a win-win, since it is the way for the former to gain a certain influence in a key region due to its raw materials, while the latter needs some strong international support not to depend on Western powers. In this sense, the label “East-South relations” is proposed here as a middle ground between considering them North-South and South-South. Moreover, the Latin American case can serve to better understand similar dynamics in other regions of the planet, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.