The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the future of Eurasia: perspectives from Armenia

Abstract

Eurasia is a complex term used to define a particular geographical region, with diverse definitions and encompassing elements from ideological, cultural, and geopolitical perspectives.  Russia, as a prominent actor, wields its influence in the region through political and economic mechanisms, exemplified by its involvement in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Concurrently, other regional powers, including China, Turkey, and Iran, also play pivotal roles. China, despite not explicitly taking a stance in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, demonstrates a keen interest and actively employs soft power strategies to enhance its presence in the region.

The frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is pivotal for an understanding of Eurasia's power shifts, and the impact on Armenia's economy, politics, and territory. Armenia, strategically located between Europe and Asia, navigates a complex geopolitical landscape, influenced by historical struggles and contemporary power dynamics. Despite challenges, Armenia remains a key player in the global context, where nations vie for influence through economic and military alliances.

The study adopts an exploratory and deductive case study approach, utilizing theories of multilateralism and power in International Relations. Through a qualitative comprehensive review of academic texts and international reports, the methodology provides insights into Armenia's historical conflicts and its role in the Eurasian region. As Armenia continues to navigate its geopolitical position, the study offers a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationships shaping the dynamics of this strategically vital region.

In the first section, the study delves into the historical context and the current state of Armenia through the lenses of Eurasianism, multilateralism, multipolarism, and regionalism. By dissecting the geopolitics of the region and examining pivotal historical events, it becomes possible to analyze the unfolding power dynamics in Eurasia, shaped by the management of natural resources and the implementation of foreign policies that simultaneously diverge and converge.

Armenia, despite experiencing a notable decline in regional influence over the years, continues to play an important role in the complex dynamics of Eurasia. This significance is particularly evident when examining the multifaceted aspects of multilateralism and power struggles within the region. Therefore, this article seeks to delve into the crisis of multilateralism in Eurasia through an in-depth analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Beyond potential geopolitical shifts, this conflict holds the capacity to ignite fresh antagonisms, such as limited-scale interventions by Western powers or the amplification of influence for actors like Azerbaijan, sustained by support from Turkey. Simultaneously, historical tensions and rivalries could resurface, potentially undermining institutional processes in the region.

Armenia has explored alternative pathways for diverse political and economic alliances. Nevertheless, the implications of forging new partnerships cannot be underestimated. The historical political closeness to Russia, prompted by security apprehensions linked to relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, has impeded Armenia's economic and political advancement, constraining its involvement with nations beyond the Eurasian sphere and the influence of Russia.

The second section scrutinizes the key facets of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the repercussions of the September 2023 events on the governance of the Euroasian region. The conflict's resolution has instigated shifts in regional dynamics, and its enduring effects persist in the relationships among neighboring countries.

The alliances formed around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, favoring Azerbaijan's military and strategic superiority, underscore Armenia's limited capabilities in establishing a robust defense. Turkey's support for Azerbaijan reveals that the conflict has transcended its original dimensions, ushering in new military realities. Additionally, Russia's commercial ties with Azerbaijan add complexity to Armenia's predicament and the overall Russian support dynamic. Hence, Armenia finds itself in a landscape of intricate dynamics, illustrating the emergence of new powers and strategies among states seeking to maintain influence in the region.

Divergences between Moscow and Yerevan have extended to questioning multilateral instruments on Eurasian security. Moscow's refusal to activate Article 4 of the CSTO, which relates to collective defense, introduces multiple layers of uncertainty for Armenia and other Eurasian countries regarding Russia's role as a guarantor of regional security. The primary effects are not only evident in the weakening of commitments to the organization, but also in post-Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; that is, new scenarios of regional insecurity emerge, casting doubt on the current multilateralism's capacity to tackle security threats to participating countries in regional institutional efforts.

The rise of regional powers like China, Turkey, and Iran deepens the uncertainties surrounding Russia's role. The outcomes of Nagorno-Karabakh reflect, from Armenia's standpoint, a hesitancy in commitments to the Eurasian project and a weakening of the belief in Russia's leadership. Statements from Armenian authorities regarding the presence of Russian troops, regional projects, or the country's refusal to participate in the CSTO military exercises reinforce the notion of a multilateralism and multipolarism crisis. Azerbaijan's territorial victory, supported by Turkey, highlights the emergence of new power centers with significant capabilities to influence geopolitical and commercial dynamics in the region.

In the long run, Armenia's dependence on Russia and other Eurasian countries seems difficult to modify, but the increasing presence of Iran, Turkey, and China poses a significant challenge to Russian primacy, reshaping Armenia's possibilities for forming new alliances. Iran's role would become crucial in scenarios leading to the Zangezur Corridor's construction. Likewise, the restrained engagement of Western powers implies that the regional dynamics and influence of smaller actors, such as Armenia, take center stage in shaping geopolitical power dynamics.

On the other hand, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a cornerstone in the Caucasus' relationships, continues to be a crucial element influencing the application of irredentism in the region. Cultural claims from both nations, particularly Armenia, highlight the impact of cultural and identity variables on threat perception, security agendas, and foreign policy approaches.

The territorial dispute has undergone a significant shift due to the geopolitical situation and tensions between Russia and Ukraine, placing Armenia in a vulnerable position without the support of its traditional ally. Consequently, in 2020, Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, floated the possibility of internally recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. The announcement of the Republic of Artsakh's dissolution on October 4, 2023, effective from January 1, 2024, triggered a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.

Similarly, the initiatives surrounding the Zangezur Corridor introduce new security scenarios for the Caucasus, generating heightened uncertainty in the historically fragile relationship between Armenia and its neighbors. The handling of these transformations will not only determine Eurasia's future but also the participating countries' capacity to find diplomatic solutions and establish lasting peace in a region marked by historical and territorial tensions.

This in-depth exploration of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, within the wider context of Eurasia, underscores the intricate interplay of geopolitical forces, cultural dynamics, and shifting alliances. The examination of Armenia's strategic choices, the evolving regional power dynamics, and the impact of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the security landscape illuminates the challenges and opportunities faced by smaller states in shaping the complex geopolitics of the region. As Eurasia navigates the influence of both traditional and emerging powers, the unresolved tensions and strategic shifts in the Caucasus, exemplified by Armenia, reverberate beyond regional borders, sparking debates on multilateralism, regional security, and the evolving nature of power in the 21st century.