Polarisation, partisan preferences, and strategic vote in Spain (2015-2019): approaching to strategic voting in the left-wing spectrum
Keywords:
strategic voting, polarisation, partisan preferences, Spain, eft-wing spectrumCopyright (c) 2021 Revista Jurídica Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Abstract
This article examines the effect of polarisation on the probability to cast a strategic vote by that segment of the electorate whose first vote choice is a “non-viable” party. To this end, we focus on Spain and on the left-wing spectrum, using the pre-election surveys conducted by the CIS for the 2015, 2016 and 2019 (28A and 10N) general elections. We conclude that polarisation between “viable” parties (PP and PSOE) increases the probability for UP’s and MP’s (“non-viable” parties) supporters to cast a strategic vote in favour of the PSOE, because it also intensifies the affinity that the left-wing voter feels towards their favourite party among the viable ones (PSOE) and dilutes the distance between the affinity he/she feels for UP/MP and for the PSOE. In other words, polarisation in Spain increases the chances of voting tactically for the PSOE because it alters the partisan preferences of the left-wing electorate.
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