Resiliencia autoritaria en los países MENA en la era de la autocratizacion: un análisis comparativo de área sobre la profundización autoritaria
Palabras clave:
Profundización autoritaria, Resistencia autoritaria, Autocratización, Estudios Comparativos de Área (CAS), Norte de África y Oriente PróximoDerechos de autor 2024 Inmaculada Szmolka, Francesco Cavatorta
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
Resumen
Basándose en los estudios sobre la resiliencia del autoritarismo en el Norte de África y Oriente Próximo África (MENA, por sus siglas en inglés), el artículo aborda el debate sobre el proceso de autocratización actual en el mundo. Lo hace a través del análisis de la profundización autoritaria como manifestación del autoritarismo contemporáneo desde una perspectiva interregional. Tras enmarcar teórica y metodológicamente el estudio de la profundización autoritaria, se lleva a cabo un Estudio de Área Comparativo—basado en el diseño de sistemas más disimilares—en el que se analizan países de diferentes regiones que comparten tendencias similares de creciente autoritarismo (Egipto, Camerún, Camboya y Venezuela) para poner de relieve sus características. El artículo muestra que la profundización del autoritarismo la experimentan autocracias de todo el mundo, aunque la región MENA se ve especialmente afectada. El análisis comparativo de los cuatro casos demuestra que el proceso de profundización autoritaria se ha traducido en una clara supresión de la competencia política, la concentración de poder en el ejecutivo y un control aún más estricto de los derechos y las libertades.
Descargas
Citas
AHRAM, Ariel (2011): “The theory and method of comparative area studies.” Qualitative Research, nº 1, pp. 69–90.
AHRAM, Ariel (2018): “Comparative Area Studies and the Analytical Challenge of Diffusion: Explaining Outcomes in the Arab Spring and Beyond,” in Ahram, Ariel, Köllner, Patrick and Rudra, SIL (eds.): Comparative Area Studies: Methodological Rationales and Cross-regional Applications, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 152–167.
ALARCÓN, Benigno e HIDALGO, Manuel (2023): Elecciones, clientelismo competitivo y autocratización en Venezuela, Revista de Estudios Políticos, nº 200, pp. 249–282. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18042/cepc/rep.200.09
ALBRECHT, Holger and SCHLUMBERGER, Oliver (2004): “Waiting for «Godot»: regime change without democratization in the Middle East,” International Political Science Review nº 25(4), pp. 371–392.
AMBROSIO, Thomas (2014): “Beyond the transition paradigm: A research agenda for authoritarian consolidation,” Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, nº 22(3), pp. 471–494.
ANDERSON, Lisa (2006): “Searching where the light shines: Studying democratization in the Middle East,” Annual Review of Political Science, nº 1, pp. 189–214.
BANK, André (2018): “Comparative Area Studies and the Study of Middle East Politics after the Arab Uprisings,” in Ahram, Ariel, Köllner, Patrick and Rudra, SIL (eds.): Comparative Area Studies: Methodological Rationales and Cross-regional Applications, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 119–130.
BANK, André and Busse, Jan (2021): “MENA political science research a decade after the Arab uprisings: Facing the facts on tremulous grounds,” Mediterranean Politics nº 26(5), pp. 539–562.
BARBABELA, Leticia, PELLICER, Miquel and WEGNER, Ewa (2021): “Court Performance and Citizen Attitudes towards Fighting Corruption,” Governance nº 35(3), pp. 717–735.
BASEDAU, Matthias and KÖLLNER, Patrick (2007): Area studies, comparative area studies, and the study of politics: Context, substance, and methodological challenges. Z Vgl Polit Wiss nº 1, pp. 105–124.
BATURO, Alex, ANCESCHI, Luca and CAVATORTA, Francesco (eds.) (2023): Personalism and Personalist Regimes, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
BELLIN, Eva (2004): “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in Comparative Perspective,” Comparative Politics nº 36(2), pp. 139–157.
BELLIN, Eva (2012): “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from the Arab Spring,” Comparative Politics, nº 44(2), pp. 127–149.
BEBLAWI, Hazem and GIACOMO, Luciani (eds.) (1987): The Rentier State in the Arab World, London: Croom Helm.
BERMEO, Nancy (2016): “On Democratic Backsliding.” Journal of Democracy nº 27(1), pp. 5-19.
BROWNLEE, Jason (2005): “Political Crisis and Restabilization: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia,” in POSUSNEY, Marsha P. and ANGRIST, Michele P. (eds.), Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance, pp. 43–62. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
BRUMBERG, Daniel (2002): “Democratization in the Arab World? The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy,” Journal of Democracy nº 13(4), pp. 56–68.
BRYNEN, Rex, KORANY, Bahgat and NOBLE, Paul (eds.) (1998): Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World., Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
BUSSE, Jan, VALBJØRN, Morten, DOOLOTKELDIEVA, Asel, ORTMANN, Stefanie, SMITH, Karen, SHAMI, Seteney, COSTA, Sérgio, WEIPERT-FENNER, Irene, WOLFF, Jonas, SCHÄFER, Saskia, Osterberg-Kaufmann, Norma (2024): “Contextualizing the Contextualizers: How the Area Studies Controversy is Different in Different Places,” International Studies Review nº 26(1).
CAROTHERS, Thomas (2022): “The end of the transition paradigm,” Journal of Democracy nº 13(1), pp. 5-21.
CASSANI, Andrea and TOMINI, Luca (2018): “Reversing Regimes and Concepts: From Democratization to Autocratization,” European Political Science nº 57(3), pp. 687–716.
CASSANI, Andrea and TOMINI, Luca (2019a): Autocratization in post-Cold War Political Regimes, Palgrave Mcmillan.
CASSANI, Andrea and TOMINI, Luca (2019b): “Post-Cold War Autocratization: Trends and Patterns of Regime Change Opposite to Democratization.” Italian Political Science Review nº 49(2) pp. 121–138.
CASSANI, Andrea and TOMINI, Luca (2019c) “Authoritarian resurgence: towards a unified analytical framework,” Italian Political Science Review nº 49, pp. 115–120.
CASSANI, Andrea and TOMINI, Luca (2020): “Trajectories and Modes of Autocratization in the Early 21st Century,” Partecipazione e Conflitto nº 13(9), pp. 1539–1558.
CAVATORTA, Francesco (2010): “The convergence of governance. Upgrading authoritarianism in the Arab world and downgrading democracy elsewhere?”, Middle East Critique nº 19(3), pp. 217–232.
CAVATORTA, Francesco (2016): “Morocco: the promise of democracy and reality of authoritarianism,” International Spectator, nº 51(1), pp. 86-98.
CHETERIAN, Vicken: (2017): “Confessionnalisme et conflits au Moyen-Orient. Une perspective de longue durée”, Relations Internationals, n º 172, vol. 4, pp. 115-126.
CHIN, John and KIRKPATRICK, Jessica (2023): “African coups in the COVID-19: a current history,” Frontiers on Political Science 5. Retrieved February 9, 2023, disponible en https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1077945/full
DARWICH, May (2017): “Creating the enemy, constructing the threat: The diffusion of repression against the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East,” Democratization nº 24(7), pp. 1289–1306.
DIAMOND, Larry (2015): “Facing up to the democratic recession,” Journal of Democracy nº 26, vol. 1 pp. 141–155.
DIAMOND, Larry, PLATTNER, Mark F. and Walker, Christopher (eds.) (2016): Authoritarianism Goes Global. The Challenge to Democracy, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
DRESDEN, Jennifer and HOWARD, Mark: (2016): “Authoritarian backsliding and the concentration of political power,” Democratization nº 23(7), pp. 1122–1143.
DROZ-VINCENT, Philippe: (2004): “Quel avenir pour l'autoritarisme dans le monde
arabe?” Revue française de science politique, nº 6(54), pp. 945-979
DROZ-VINCENT, Philippe (2015): “Le rôle politique des acteurs militaires dans le monde arabe après les soulèvements,” Anuario IEMed 2015, pp. 26-32.
DUNNE, Michele and HAMZAWY, Amr (2017): “Egypt’s Secular Political Parties: A Struggle for Identity and Independence,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved May 8, 2023, disponible en https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/31/egypt-s-secular-political-parties-struggle-for-identity-and-independence-pub-68482
ELSHARKAWY, Shimaa (2023): “Whatever happened to the Egyptian road to Democracy?,” The Journal of North African Studies, nº 28(6), pp. 1538-1557.
ENONCHONG, Laura-Stella (2022): “Unconstitutional constitutional amendment or constitutional dismemberment? A reappraisal of the presidential term limit amendment in Cameroon,” Global Constitutionalism 11(2), pp. 274-296.
EYENGA, Georges (2024): “Au Cameroun la difficile mobilisation des electeurs”, disponible en https://idl-bnc-idrc.dspacedirect.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/72af3126-84ad-470b-bce0-ae7da03389f6/content
FISH, Steven (2002): “Islam and Authoritarianism,” World Politics nº 55(1), pp. 4–37.
GARNETT, Holly A., JAMES, Toby and MACGREGOR, Sofia M. (2023): Perceptions of Electoral Integrity, (PEI-9.0). Harvard Dataverse, V1. Retrieved April 12, 2023, disponible en https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/pei
GATELIER, Karine and VALERI, Marc: (2012): “Avant-propos Les stratégies de légitimation dans
les régimes autoritaires. Perspectives compares”, Revue Internationale de Politique
Comparée, n º 4(19), pp. 7-13.
GHALIOUN, Burhan (2004): “The Persistence of Arab Authoritarianism,” Journal of Democracy nº 15(4), pp. 126–132.
GÖBEL, Christian (2011): “Authoritarian consolidation,” European Political Science 10(2): 176.
HANDLIN, Samuel (2016): “Mass Organization and the Durability of Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Venezuela,” Comparative Political Studies nº 49(9), pp. 1238–1269.
HARKNESS, Kristen A. (2017): “Military loyalty and the failure of democratization in Africa: how ethnic armies shape the capacity of presidents to defy term limits,” Democratization nº 24(5), pp. 801-818.
HASHEMI, Nader (2016): “Toward a political theory of sectarianism in the Middle East: The Salience of Authoritarianism over Theology,” Journal of Islamic and Muslim Studies nº 1(1), 65-76.
HEYDEMANN, Steven (2007): Upgrading authoritarianism, Washington, D.C.: Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
HEYDEMANN, Steven, and Reinoud Leenders (2011): “Authoritarian Learning and Authoritarian Resilience: Regime Responses to the ‘Arab Awakening’,” Globalizations nº 8(5), pp. 647–653.
HEYDEMANN, Steven, and Reinoud Leenders, eds. (2013): Middle East Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in Syria and Iran, Stanford University Press.
HILL, J.N.C. (2019): “Authoritarian resilience and regime cohesion in Morocco after the Arab Spring.” Middle Eastern Studies nº 55(2), pp. 276-288.
HINNEBUSCH, Raymond (2000): “Liberalization without Democratization in ‘Post-populist’ Authoritarian States,” in BUTENSCHON, Nils, DAVIS, Uri and Hassassian, Manuel (eds.), Citizenship and State in the Middle East, ed. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, pp. 123–145.
HINNEBUSCH, Raymond (2006): “Authoritarian persistence, democratization theory and the Middle East: An overview and critique,” Democratization nº 13(3), pp. 373–395.
HINNEBUSCH, Raymond (2015): “Introduction: understanding the consequences of the Arab uprisings–starting points and divergent trajectories,” Democratization nº 22(2), pp. 205–217.
HOPKIN, Jonathan (2020): Anti-system politics: the crisis of market liberalism in rich democracies, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
JAMAL, Manal (2012): “Democracy Promotion, Civil Society Building, and the Primacy of Politics.” Comparative Political Studies nº 45(1), pp. 3-31.
JOSUA, Maria, and Mirjam Edel (2021): “The Arab uprisings and the return of repression.” Mediterranean Politics nº 26(5), pp. 586–611.
KAO, K., and Ellen, Lust (2017): “Snapshot–Why did the Arab Uprisings turn out as they did? A survey of the literature. POMED Project on Middle East Democracy. Retrieved June 3, 2022, disponible en https://pomed.org/pomed-snapshot-why-did-the-arab-uprisings-turn-out-as-they-did-a-survey-of-the-literature
KARAKAYA, Suveyda, and Kadir YILDRIM (2013): “Islamist moderation in perspective: comparative analysis of the moderation of Islamist and Western communist parties.” Democratization nº 20(7), pp. 1322–1349.
KEUTCHEU, Joseph: (2021): “La crise anglophone: entre lutte de reconnaissance, mouvements protestataires et renégociation du projet hégémonique de l’État au Cameroun”, Politique et Societé, nº 2(40), pp. 3-26.
KING, Stephen J. (2007): “Sustaining Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa.” Political Science Quarterly nº 122(3), pp. 433–459.
KNEUER, Marianne (2021): “Unravelling Democratic Erosion: Who Drives the Slow Death of Democracy, and How?” Democratization nº 28(8), pp. 1442–1462.
KOEHLER, Kevin (2023): “Breakdown by disengagement: Tunisia’s transition from representative democracy.” Political Research Exchange nº 5(1), disponible en https://www-tandfonline-com.acces.bibl.ulaval.ca/doi/full/10.1080/2474736X.2023.2279778?src=exp-la
LAEBENS, Melisa, and Anna LÜHRMANN (2021): “What Halts Democratic Erosion? The Changing Role of Accountability.” Democratization nº 28(4), pp. 1–21.
LATOUCHE, Miguel Á. (2019): Venezuela and Its Labyrinth: Institutional Change and Authoritarianism in Twenty-first-Century Socialism. Middle Atlantic Review of Latin American Studies nº 3(2), pp. 1-26.
LAWRENCE, Benjamin (2022): “Cambodia’s Constitutional Amendments: Consolidating Control and Securing Succession Plans.” ConstitutionNet, International IDEA. Retrieved October 2, 2023, disponible en https://constitutionnet.org/news/cambodias-constitutional-amendments-consolidating-control
LE BAS, Adrienne (2011). “From Protest to Parties: Party-Building and Democratization in Africa.” Oxford Scholarship Online. 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199546862.001.0001
LEVITSKY, Steven, and Lucan Way (2010): Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. New York: Cambridge University Press.
LEVITSKY, Steven and Lucan Way (2023): “Democracy’s Surprising Resilience.” Journal of Democracy nº 34(4), pp. 5-20.
LOUGHLIN, Neil (2021): “Chinese linkage, leverage, and Cambodia’s transition to hegemonic authoritarianism.” Democratization nº 28, vol. 4, pp. 840–857.
LOPEZ MAYA, Margarita: (2024): “Venezuela: ¿por qué cayó la democracia?”, Revista Mexicana de Sociologia, nº 1(86), pp. 119-143.
LÜHRMANN, Anna, and Staffan I. LINDBERG (2019): “A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What is New About It?” Democratization nº 26(7), pp. 1095–1113.
LUST-OKAR, Ellen (2004): “Divided They Rule: The Management and Manipulation of the Political Opposition.” Comparative Politics nº 36, pp. 159–179.
LYNCH, Marc (2021): “Taking stock of MENA political science after the uprisings.” Mediterranean Politics nº 26(5), pp. 682–695.
MAERZ, Seraphine F, Amanda EDGELL, Matthew C. WILSON, Sebastian HELLMEIER, and Staffan I. LINDBERG (2021): “A Framework for Understanding Regime Transformation: Introducing the ERT Dataset.” V-Dem Working Paper 113.
MAERZ, Seraphine F., Anna LÜHRMANN, Sebastian HELLMEIER, Sandra Grahn, and Staffan I. LINDBERG (2020): State of the world 2019: autocratization surges–resistance grows.” Democratization nº 27(6), pp. 909–927.
MAGALONI, Beatriz (2008): “Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule.” Comparative Political Studies nº 41(4-5), pp. 715–741.
MAGALONI, Beatriz (2010): “The Game of Electoral Fraud and the Ousting of Authoritarian Rule.” American Journal of Political Science nº 54(3), pp. 751–765.
NORTON, Augustus R., ed. (1995): Civil Society in the Middle East. Leiden: E.J. Brill.
PACE, Michelle, and Francesco CAVATORTA (2012): “The Arab Uprisings in Theoretical Perspective-An Introduction.” Mediterranean Politics nº 17, vol. 2, pp. 125–138.
ROUGIER, Bernard and Stephane LACROIX, eds. (2016): Egypt’s Revolutions. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
SAYIGH, Yezid (2019): Egypt’s Military Now Controls Much of Its Economy. Is This Wise? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved November 25, 2019, disponible en https://carnegie-mec.org/2019/11/25/egypt-s-military-now-controls-much-of-its-economy.-is-this-wise-pub-80281
SHARABI, Hisham (1988): Neopatriarchy: A Theory of Distorted Change in Arab Society. New York: Oxford University Press.
SCHEDLER, Andreas (2002): “Elections without Democracy. The Menu of Manipulation.” Journal of Democracy nº 13, pp. 51–65.
SCHMITTER, Philippe C. (2015): “Crisis and transition, but not decline.” Journal of Democracy nº 26(1), pp. 32–44.
SINKKONEN, Elina (2021): “Dynamic dictators: improving the research agenda on autocratization and authoritarian resilience.” Democratization nº 28(6), pp. 1172–1190.
SKAANING, Svend-Erik (2020): “Waves of autocratization and democratization: a critical note on conceptualization and measurement.” Democratization nº 27 (8), pp. 1533–1542.
STEUER, Clement: (2020): “Les élections, principal théâtre de la crise de l’État égyptien”, Maghreb-Machrek, n º 243(1), pp. 41-55.
SVOLIK, Milan W. (2012): The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York: Cambridge University Press.
SZMOLKA, Inmaculada (2017a): “Analytical Framework for a Study of Change in Political Regimes.” In Political Change in the Middle East and North Africa: After the Arab Spring, ed. Inmaculada Szmolka, pp. 13–37. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
SZMOLKA, Inmaculada (2017b): “Successful and Failed Transitions to Democracy.” In Political Change in the Middle East and North Africa: After the Arab Spring, ed. Inmaculada Szmolka, pp. 349–378. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
SZMOLKA, Inmaculada y Lucía G.DEL MORAL (2019): “A proposal of party systems typology for democratic and pluralist authoritarian regimes. Its application to the Maghreb countries”. Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas nº 168, pp. 93-110.
TETI, Andrea, and Gervasio GENNARO (2011): “The unbearable lightness of authoritarianism: Lessons from the Arab Uprisings.” Mediterranean Politics nº 16, vol. 2, pp. 321–327.
TOMINI, Luca (2021): “Don’t think of a wave! A research note about the current autocratization debate.” Democratization nº 28(6), pp. 1191–1201.
TOPAK, Ozgun, Merouan MEKOUAR and Francesco CAVATORTA, eds. (2022): New Authoritarian Practices in the Middle East and North Africa. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
VALBJØRN, Morten (2012): “Upgrading Post-democratization Studies: Examining a Re-politicized Arab World in a Transition to Somewhere.” Middle East Critique nº 21(1), pp. 25–35.
VALBJØRN, Morten (2015): “Reflections on self-reflections-On framing the analytical implications of the Arab uprisings for the study of Arab politics.” Democratization nº 22(2), pp. 218–238.
VELASCO, V. Ximena, Calla HUMMEL, Sam Handlin, and Amy E. SMITH (2021): “Latin America Erupts: When Does Competitive Authoritarianism Take Root?” Journal of Democracy nº 32(3), pp. 63-77.
VOLPI, Frédéric (2013): “Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb”. Democratization nº 20(6), pp. 969–990.
WALDNER, David, and Ellen Lust (2018): “Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding.” Annual Review of Political Science, nº 21(1), pp. 93–113.
ZIADA, Dalia (2022): “Egypt: A National Dialogue or a Political Maneuver,” last modified June 9, 2023. Retrieved July 10, 2023, disponible en https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/egypt-national-dialogue-or-political-maneuver