Velocity of response to climate change of Viola spp. in the alpine ecosystem of the Canary Islands
Keywords:
climate change, conservation, threatened species, herbivory, species distribution modelsAbstract
The Viola genus, currently being represented in the alpine ecosystem of the Canary Islands by the insular endemisms V. palmensis (La Palma) and V. cheiranthifolia and V. guaxarensis (Tenerife), is one of the most threatened by climate change and herbivores. In this work, the potential distribution of these three Viola species has been modelled in different climatic scenarios, incorporating novelties such as models towards the past (1959-1989) and a calculation of the velocity of response to climate change for each species. The results show that in the last decades, V. guaxarensis has lost a 22,7% of potential surface and more than 40% for V. palmensis and V. cheiranthifolia. Future projections are especially worrying for these last two species, as they tend to reduce their potential distribution area in the highest sectors of both islands, which will become biodiversity sinks. The velocity with which the species must migrate to compensate for these changes is greater when they are forced to cross large distances to find their niche, as it is expected to occur in the future with V. guaxarensis, since its habitat suitability is focussed on Mount Teide. Based on these results, it is proposed to reinforce the populations, control or eradicate herbivores and translocations.
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